Foresight Ventures Weekly Brief — September 21, 2025

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1. Market Dynamics

A. Macro Liquidity

The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting, citing slower employment growth. Market expectations now indicate three additional cuts before year-end. The U.S. Dollar Index declined to its lowest level in 3.5 years. Global equity markets continued to strengthen, and digital assets rebounded in line with broader risk markets.

B. Market Performance

Top 300 by market capitalization — weekly movements:
Bitcoin advanced modestly, while altcoins broadly outperformed. Market activity concentrated on Solana-linked tokens.

Top Gainers:

• AVNT (+350%)
  

• DORA (+80%)
  

• PUMP (+60%)
  

• ATH (+50%)
  

• MNT (+30%)
  

Top Decliners:

• FORM (−40%)
  

• WLD (−20%)
  

• KAITO (−20%)
  

• ENA (−20%)
  

• MYX (−20%)
  

Key highlights:

• PUMP (Solana meme launchpad): Holds ~80% market share. Since July 15, all revenues have been directed to buybacks (~8,500 WU), reducing circulating supply by 6%. Live-streaming revenues reached $16.4 million last week, the highest level in six months.
  

• AVNT (RWA derivatives exchange): Strong backing from Coinbase; achieved expedited listings on Upbit and Binance. Its trajectory mirrors previous Coinbase-sponsored assets on Base such as KTA and ZORA.
  

• STBL (stablecoin protocol): Achieved a one-day appreciation of 10x, with total market capitalization reaching $1.3 billion. Founded by a Tether co-founder, STBL introduces a three-token architecture with yield-separation technology, addressing the inherent conflict between liquidity and yield in conventional stablecoins.
  

C. On-Chain Data

• Bitcoin consolidated near short-term holder cost bases. ETF inflows supported sentiment, though spot flows weakened, and profit-taking pressures increased. Market sentiment improved but remains fragile.

• Institutional flows: Net inflows of $3.3 billion were recorded. Solana achieved its highest daily inflow on record ($150 million)

• MVRV-Z Score: Currently at 2.3, indicating mid-cycle conditions (above loss-making territory but well below peak levels).

D. Derivatives

• Funding rates: Averaged 0.00% (neutral). Historically, 0.05–0.10% indicates short-term tops; −0.10–0% signals short-term bottoms.

• Open interest: BTC open interest rebounded, suggesting renewed institutional participation.

• Long/short ratio: At 0.9, indicating neutral sentiment. Retail sentiment remains a contrarian indicator (<0.7 = fear; >2.0 = greed).

E. Spot Markets

Bitcoin rose during the week. Solana outperformed among large-cap assets, supported by treasury-related demand. The SOL DAT project, led by Kyle Samani, raised $1.6 billion in cash, indicating significant buying capacity and suggesting Solana’s trajectory may mirror Ethereum’s during previous cycles.

F. Stablecoin Market

Total supply: $281.4 billion (+5.5% MoM). Market share remains concentrated: USDT 60%, USDC 25%.

STBL Protocol:

• USST: USD-pegged stablecoin.
  

• YLD: Yield token (NFT format) providing entitlement to collateralized asset yields.
  

• STBL: Governance token (max supply: 10 billion).
  

• Collateral base: Primarily tokenized U.S. Treasuries (USDY, OUSG, BUIDL) and other high-quality RWAs.
  This structure separates liquidity (USST) from yield rights (YLD), enabling holders to transact while capturing reserve interest.
  

Per-chain stablecoin growth (30D):

• USDT: ETH (+12%), Solana (+10%), driven by DeFi demand.
  

• USDC: HYPE (+17%), AVAX (+84%), supported by DeFi and exchange usage.

Key initiatives:

• Tether launched USAT, a U.S.-compliant stablecoin, potentially reducing USDC’s domestic dominance.
  

• Plasma chain will issue its native token on September 25.
  

• Hyperliquid governance selected Native Markets to manage its $5.5 billion USDH reserves. Circle subsequently invested in HYPE, likely for defensive positioning.

Usage trends: Deposits increased most notably on HYPE, reflecting its role as the largest on-chain perpetuals venue.

Geographic distribution: North America (38%), Europe (35%), Asia (16%).

2. Stablecoins and Payments

A. Project Developments

• Google: Launched an open-source AI payments protocol supporting both card networks and stablecoins. Collaborators included Coinbase, Ethereum Foundation, Salesforce, and AmEx.
  

• Tether: Announced re-entry into the U.S. market with USAT, issued via Anchorage Digital with reserves managed by Cantor Fitzgerald. CEO Paolo Ardoino emphasized the firm’s proprietary distribution network as a competitive advantage.
  

B. Regulatory Developments

United States:

• SEC Chair Paul S. Atkins outlined plans to position the U.S. as the global crypto hub, advocating “minimum effective regulation.”
  

• Kraken announced perpetual futures products in selected jurisdictions and is preparing for a Q1 2026 IPO.
  

• Figure became the first RWA platform to list on Nasdaq, closing +24% on its debut.
  

• Gemini Space Station (GEMI): Listed with a $3.7 billion market cap; shares closed +14.3% on the first day.
  

• SEC and Gemini reached a settlement in principle regarding the Gemini Earn litigation.
  

United Kingdom:

• LSEG introduced the Digital Market Infrastructure platform for private funds.
  

• FCA proposed tailored exemptions for crypto companies as part of its 2026 regulatory framework.
  

Hong Kong and Mainland China:

• HKMA issued consultation on Basel-aligned crypto capital treatment standards (effective January 1, 2026).
  

• DigiFT, Chainlink, and UBS received approval for a joint digital asset project under Hong Kong’s pilot scheme.
  

• PBoC highlighted risks from cross-border capital flows via virtual assets and underground channels, while noting progress in QR-code cross-border payment interoperability.
  

3. Fundraising

• Solido: Raised $0.8 million seed funding from Supra, Cashaa, HELLO Labs, and Spartan Capital. Focused on DeFi infrastructure, including liquid staking (stSUPRA), non-yielding stablecoin (CASH), and automated strategies (AutoFi).
  

4. Project Updates

• 0G: Binance listed pre-market perpetual contracts (0G/USDT) with up to 5x leverage. 0G is a decentralized AI Layer 1 targeting large-scale AI workloads.
  

• Lombard (BARD): Launched on Binance Alpha with five trading pairs. Initial circulating supply 225 million tokens (22.5%).
  

• Aspecta: Introduced BuildKey TGE model with Binance Wallet.
  

• Zama: Achieved significant FHE advances, reducing computation times by over 200x. Current confidential stablecoin throughput exceeds Ethereum and most L2s. Targeting 1000 TPS within months and 100k TPS by 2029.
  

• Movement: Transitioning from sidechain to independent Layer 1, with Move 2.0 integration, >10,000 TPS capacity, and sub-second finality.
  

• Story: Announced IP Vault for secure on-chain storage of IP data, launching on Dev Network in 2025 with testnet and mainnet slated for 2026.
  

• OSL: Enhanced compliance positioning in Hong Kong and integrated Google Pay for USDT/USDC purchases across 134 fiat currencies.
  

5. Featured Research

• The Rise of Stablechains — Youssef Haidar (September 12, 2025)
  

• Understanding Virtuals Protocol: A Comprehensive Overview — Jeremy Koch (September 17, 2025)
  

• Enterprise Note: Takeaways from the USDH Vote — Sam Ruskin (September 16, 2025)