Is the bottom in for crypto? Kevin, Jason, José, Yan and Ceteris break down a market that just shook off weeks of selling, from the 10:30 AM seller who finally ran out of coins to the year-end unlocks and what the midterms could mean for crypto. The crew digs into the AI debt bubble fears around CoreWeave and the labs, the math behind $4 trillion of AI capex, and why this cycle looks nothing like 2000. Plus, who ends up with Satoshi’s coins when quantum arrives, why quantum fear is lifting Zcash and Pearl, Paper Trade’s token problem, Kinetiq and the HyperEVM bet, and the rise of anti-social trading.
Delphi Digital’s brightest minds – Jose, Yan, Ceteris, Jason and Kevin – banter about the biggest topics in crypto & beyond. Join The Hivemind.
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Yan Liberman [0:00:00] Imagine being a bear.
Jason [0:00:01] The 10:30 AM seller that’s like been here every day for the last month, just nuking the charts appears to have run out of coins.
José Macedo [0:00:08] Anthropic went from five billion Q1 to 16 billion Q3. It’s never happened before.
Ceteris [0:00:15] It’ll either be China or the US who gets Satoshi’s coins.
Yan Liberman [0:00:18] Pearl is a tool to identify who doesn’t have size.
José Macedo [0:00:22] I sold some of my long term Bitcoin holdings and put them into Zcash.
Ceteris [0:00:26] I think Zcash should go to 5k, but I think it could go to like under 1k after that.
Jason [0:00:29] And the best way to build loyalty in crypto is to make people rich on your protocol.
José Macedo [0:00:34] I love that Thanksgiving in US is a time to be grateful and a time to source exit liquidity.
Yan Liberman [0:00:39] You don’t dump on your friends, you dump on your family.
Episode
Kevin Kelly [0:00:44] All right welcome back to the delphi hive mind podcast another week it’s funny yesterday was we’re kind of going through and preparing for this I think the vibes might have been a little bit different don’t want to hang too much up on a green candle day but as jason said before we started recording we’re so back so we can we can dig into that a little bit um let’s start with our usual kind of markets banter and update, right? Definitely have seen crypto markets, I think a pretty decent pullback for the last couple of weeks, starting to find a bottom on some names right now. We’ll get into the whole AI debt bubble concerns and all that that’s kind of rocking certain parts of the tech trade and the stock market itself. But let’s start with kind of crypto. How are guys feeling here?
Yan Liberman [0:01:29] Imagine being a bear.
Jason [0:01:32] I feel
Ceteris [0:01:33] Like crypto looks pretty good here I mean we’re up this morning Bitcoin’s back to 84.4 um we had that little you know we like a month there that was pretty rough on chain has looked like pretty bad but uh the winners are starting to win again
José Macedo [0:01:48] I hate that that’s a thing on chain that’s like now now a thing that people say referring to memes and you know all that crap
Ceteris [0:01:56] I mean it’s not just memes it’s just like the like highly speculative area I guess
Yan Liberman [0:02:01] Unlisted stuff
Ceteris [0:02:02] Yeah like but yeah I mean the robin hood and like Solana you know on chain trenches whatever you want to call it have been like hammered pretty hard over the past month I would say um I don’t know if you’re really seeing that come back right now but you know you’re seeing strong continuation from some of the majors here.
Yan Liberman [0:02:26] We’ve had the rumors that they’re doing some ecosystem fund. I haven’t really done the math on how much business that could drive and then how much fee revenue from their sequencer they’d get directly and then indirectly activity users, et cetera. But I could see even like a small amount moving the needle, but I’m not really.
Jason [0:02:50] I mean, how would you like even like play something? You just have to like pawns or some
Yan Liberman [0:02:54] Nonsense. Yeah, pawns and cash cat, which is what I bought when I heard that there was like the second I saw that rumor hit the tape.
Jason [0:03:05] Yeah, I mean, like I was looking at markets maybe like over the weekend. Was like, man, some of these things look pretty like not great, like, you know, distribution or just like general consolidation. But I was like looking at Bitcoin. Was like, yo, Bitcoin could get on at like 75 or 74 or 73. And it would still be like completely fine, right? Like it would look completely fine in the grand scheme of things. So I actually like had like some bid set down there. Was like, yeah, I’m going to catch this shit. And then last three days, everything kind of just like rallied pretty hard. The 10:30 AM seller that’s like been here every day for the last month, just nuking the charts appears to have run out of coins, maybe. There’s some like you know there’s some like interesting like little trade opportunities like Yan brought up like you know obviously this isn’t something I would do now because it’s the day of the robin hood earnings call or whatever or the later earnings call um but like you know kind of like buy something into that especially after it’s been like pretty much straight down in a line since like middle of september um I do think like heading into end of year like I have no I have no read on midterms I don’t know I have no idea at this point I’ve thought about it a lot I just have no read no no idea so I’m not even really going to spend any more of my mental bandwidth trying to game plan around it I think I’m just going to like generally wait to see until it’s more clear um but like certain things like on-chain stuff as jose hates to call it um or even just like the smaller things like lighter like obviously everybody knows like a couple of us are probably relatively bullish, like Kinetiq and like what that might do for Hyperliquid Eco down the line. But like tons of these projects, which are like pretty good and everything, also have lots of pretty big unlocks coming up into the end of the year. And so one thing I’m kind of keeping an eye on is like, do these teams try to do something to kind of maybe pull forward the unlocks a bit? Right. Kind of get through that wall of worry a bit sooner. Maybe they work with teams to come to some kind of maybe like agreement to restake portions of the unlocks, essentially try to signal to the market that like this massive supply coming into a lot of the projects that lots of people like isn’t actually going to nuke charts. But again, it’s kind of hard to do when you have all these different stakeholders. It’s a lot easier when you’re like a hyper liquid and you pretty much have full control over all the unlocks anyway. So that’s one thing I’m kind of looking at. Right like I like lighter into end of year I was it was always like oh boy like I don’t know how they’re going to navigate this because everybody’s up so much um in their like private rounds like even like the most recent round is up a boatload and so how do you how do you kind of navigate that um as
Ceteris [0:05:51] I feel like one one thing that might help these unlocks coming up is that there’s not a lot of them now so it’s not like the entire industry is going through an unlock
Jason [0:06:00] It’s just the projects we care about, right?
Yan Liberman [0:06:02] Yeah, but I wouldn’t treat them equally either. Think you’ve seen – Hype was probably – Hype. Pump was a pretty relevant example of the pain getting front run and then assuming the worst. I think obviously theirs is compounded with lack of trust in revenue durability. At least back then, I think it’s harder to make the argument now. But I imagine the strongest names will try and do some kind of cushioning where they’ll speak to investors and potentially even try and line up buyers. I think this is going to be more prevalent for revenue generating assets that can be fundamentally understood. I think you can reasonably find buyers and cushion that blow. So, you know, I’d probably use, at least on lighter, any material weakness as a buying opportunity. Because I imagine it’s just something everyone’s aware of, right? It’s the same way everyone’s yelling Black Monday on Sunday. It’s just like the more awareness there is about it, the less likely the event is to really play out the way people expect. And I think that also applies to midterms. I mean, actually, maybe you could argue the other way. But midterms over the past, I think going back to Bush Sr., the incumbent loses the house in midterms. It’s just like the way it is because people are pissed about something and they scapegoat. And then everyone’s like, all right, it’s the same way. It just swings back and forth. But to a smaller degree, you have it also happening in midterms. And I don’t know that, I guess it depends to the degree that they win and what that maybe does for the AI build outside. You know, we already had all the acts not really go through. There’s a world where Dems win the house and try and go after crypto to some extent, right? And that could be a headwind. But I don’t really view these as a factor. I think you probably maybe you get a sell off going into them a little bit. And then it happens. Then everyone’s like, all right, fine. Event behind this. We’ve had just so many massive negative events and crypto is held up pretty well. Right. Like there’s nothing really that’s been favorable for it. The acts didn’t pass. Concerns about trade, about the AI trade. Inflation is coming in hot. So, you know, there’s going to be probability of rates going up is there. And so all of these events taking place and crypto being resilient just shows that the market’s kind of able to climb the wall of worry. And that’s not to say that everything is going to go up and not to say that they’re not going to be some big drawdowns when kind of, you know, alt-OI gets kind of excessive. But if you look at a lot of the alts that have traded well, you’ve seen kind of OI reset back to pre-big move high levels. And then if you look at kind of like where like the volume deltas are, it’s been mostly perp selling. So I think you kind of got a pretty healthy reset in a lot of these names. And it kind of goes back to the stuff we’ve just been harping on where it’s concentration in a handful of names as like the easier trade. And then, you know, if you’re going to do some additional work and try and outperform those, then you kind of got to find the next altcoins that are going to be accepted as blue chip, basically.
Jason [0:09:35] You mentioned the AI risk. Just like isolate away the midterms. Just assume, just like pretend they’re not happening. How do you guys feel about the AI trade? Like Kev, Yan, José, I you guys are a little bit more plugged into that trade than I or Ceteris is. And like seen a lot of stuff on on socials obviously over the last week apparently core weave is patient zero according to nick carter’s sarcastic tweet um with uh with stuff going on there obviously the Anthropic ipo is probably the biggest market event on the calendar at this point or like pseudo on the calendar um so like yeah yeah how do you feel about it
José Macedo [0:10:15] Yeah cab you wanna You want to kick us off with that Venki from Menlo tweet? I think that’s a pretty good framing.
Kevin Kelly [0:10:23] Yeah. Yeah, I do. Give me one sec. I’ll pull that up. Because I think where I sit is, I think right now it’s really tough to discern when there’s a lot of uncertainty, like what the expected revenues and actual economics of this entire trend and trade are going to be. So I thought this was a really interesting post that we can link in the show notes. That basically goes over like a couple different paths forward, right? And the rough kind of numbers, like stick with me here, because I think it’s important context. He starts off saying, basically, there’s about call it roughly like 4 trillion in AI CapEx through 2029, right? And this gets into the whole data center build out and infrastructure CapEx build out and all the kind of fear mongering right now that’s going on, especially with like core of debt and equity, right? The assumption is, right, if you’ve got $4 trillion of AI CapEx over the next, call it, three years or so, and you assume that that capital needs to actually earn some type of return, right? And an ROI that is relatively high enough to make it attractive, he puts a 12 % return in his assumptions, you kind of wind up getting to a point where you need about $500 billion of free cash flow by 2029 in order to really support that amount of CapEx and earn the return on it, right? Which translates, if you think it’s 50 % gross margins, about a trillion in revenue for EAI compute that’s actually being installed and being used. And the two paths forward, and I’m curious of your guys’ thoughts on this, and Zay, I know you’re deep on this too, is there’s one side where the lab simply just falls short on this revenue expectation, right? And in that case, there’s definitely a bit of a painful unwind. A lot of the things that people are talking about are the concerns that are happening today. It is a painful unwind, but I think one of the important kind of historical anecdotes is it’s not as if this is like a 2001.com type of potential full-blown debt crisis, right? A lot of the top AI spenders today, I think it’s the top four, represent about 70 % of that’s coming from like operating cash flow. We’ve seen the numbers where more of that free cash flow is going towards more capex, right? But those all have pristine credit ratings. They’re still funding a majority of that out of operating cash flow. The debt really lives with these other firms, right? The Oracles, the Core Weaves, Metazoft Balance Sheet Financing. Private credit has become much, much bigger, right? He estimates, I think, somewhere around like $350 billion of private credit that’s also going in to support this. And so path one is basically, hey, yes, there’s going to be some pain, long-term bullish AI, but you’re going to have some unwinds. You’re to have things like CoreWeave that are probably just going to do extremely poorly. The other option is the math of labs actually being able to potentially get there. And I thought what was interesting about this as you go through it is it kind of lays out where this money could come from. And I think the combination of these actually, at least in my view, makes me less cynical about potentially getting to these types of numbers. It’s a big F, but the money has to come from somewhere. So we looked at US wages, for example, and that being about $15 trillion a year. So if you take about 3 % of that, you get to about 500 billion, right? That represents about 5 million jobs. Unemployment goes up to maybe 3%. Not a huge death, doom, labor crisis, right? Definitely hurts, but it’s doable, right? The other option is you have about 1.6 % of US GDP, right? And that output growth can help to support this funding. And then just global software spending. And that’s one where you need like start to shift towards a majority of that software spend going towards revenue that comes in for these AI compute providers. But the big takeaway for me, I’ll wrap this up is there’s definitely a path forward. It’s not super clear, but it’s not as if all this installed compute and infrastructure is not going to earn some type of return on that CapEx, right? It’s just a matter of like, it’s almost like this game of timeline game right now.
Yan Liberman [0:14:35] Just real quick in terms of like stage setting, the numbers you mentioned, you know, that one popular chart that’s going around, which is basically, and I think even like Chamath tweeted about it was the whole idea is 80 % of spend is coming from 1 % of like the share of spend as in like the top 1 % are spending 80 % and then 80 % of that is AI, is VC backed. So do you like, I guess the question though is VC backed is like a binary trigger, right? VC backed, non-VC backed. But the source of that capital is the question because they can be VC backed, but raise debt.
Jason [0:15:20] It’s a bridge. Yeah, yeah.
Yan Liberman [0:15:22] So like, I think that like, because basically this chart wouldn’t reconcile with the numbers you were saying earlier, I guess the caveat would just be, you know, VC backed is binary yes or no, but it’s the share of the capital that you’re spending. What share of that is coming from VCs versus credit, which you can argue they’re both, they both have their own issues, right? VC’s pulling back, credit getting expensive.
José Macedo [0:15:45] Yeah, I’m pretty bullish on us being fine, hitting the numbers we need. And I think his numbers are basically, yeah, 500 billion of free cash flow, which means a trillion dollars of revenue at 50 percent gross margins. Right. And he basically assumes that the labs are half of that. And right now they’re they’re give or take 100 bill. So you’re basically saying they need to grow 70 percent a year on a hundred billion dollar base over the next three years, which is has never happened. But the thing is, I think we’re just seeing loads of stuff that’s never happened before. Right. Like Frontier Lab revenue three years ago was two bill. Now it’s 100 bill. That’s never happened. Anthropic went from 5 bill in Q1 to 16 bill in Q3. It’s never happened before. And I think even at massive scale, like NVIDIA, in the last quarter, they’re up 106 % year on year. And their revenue this year is projected to be 80 % higher than last year on a $200 billion base, right? It’s just like fucking insane numbers. There’s this good chart from the Jensen Huang putt on like analysts basically assume they’d be flat or down. The bullish analysts like Altimeter assume they’d be up 20%. And like the real is they’re up 80 % this year. It’s just like insane. And then the stock’s only up 20%, by the way. I think that the forward earnings multiple on NVIDIA is like 13x. So basically, I do think the market is like heavily discounting. The market is not AGI-pilled. Is kind of like the only way I think these numbers add up. And even SpaceX, right? They came out yesterday. I think they’re up 161 % year on year. They did like a 15 bill quarter, which is kind of crazy. And then to me, when you look at like some of the fundamental demand indicators, I think one of the most important ones is like spot rental prices for GPUs. They’re all up. They’re all up even in October, actually. Like if you look at the Oren Index, Then you can look at like open router tokens per week. It’s up 36 % in the last month and like 35X year on year, you know, the token spend. And the majority of that is open models. And then, you know, there’s been about, according to Semi analysis, a trillion of binding data center leases signed this year. And so, and then the other thing I think that Venky’s analysis misses is you’re just counting basically Frontier Labs and Hyperscalers, who are definitely the majority of the revenue. But one really interesting thing that Jensen talks about in this podcast with Gerstner that I really recommend everyone listen to is that actually a third of their revenue is just classical computing moving from CPUs to GPUs, right? All these things like data processing, search and recommenders, like all these algorithms that used to run on CPUs are now moving to AI compute. And that’s literally a third of their revenue and it’s growing 30, 40 % a year. So that already puts in a big like that’s revenue that’s not even accounted for in this. And then I think there’s like a bunch of of unknown revenue that could come in, for instance, like physical AI, right? Like robotics could could come in big time by 2029. Self-driving could come in like surgical robots, medical imaging, satellite imaging. I think basically everything is going to be intelligent and leverage AI compute in my mind. So I just think there’s many ways to get there. And I think I’m very confident the labs themselves, well, very confident is maybe too hard to say, but I’m pretty confident the labs themselves can reach 500 bill by 2029. My main worry is what you just said, which is this reflexive demand. And I think there was this post that I linked, maybe we can put it in the show notes, by a guy called Giovanni Catani, who we’re actually LPs in and we really like. But he put together this framework for AI demand that I thought was really interesting, which is basically you kind of split it into bounded tasks and unbounded tasks, right? And bounded tasks is like taxes, accounting, a basic front end, all these things where there’s a limited amount of tokens you can spend. And you’re going to just basically go to the cheapest model you need to achieve that. And you can look at progress in all the benchmarks. These tasks are getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. And those tasks will eventually move off frontier models, right? And then there’s the unbounded tasks, which is basically where there’s never really a finish line. And there’s almost like infinite demand for spend, right? Like one of them is quant trading, right? Like if you spend more intelligence, you can get more edge. There’s sort of, I mean, infinite, probably not, but there’s like extremely high. And apparently those are some of the biggest spenders in AI. And there’s obviously ARR &D, which is sort of infinite. The models could keep getting more and more intelligent, at least there’s been no signs of slowing so far. And then like building software, right? You can sort of always build more and more software. So tasks like this, and this is like F1, right? You always just want the fastest car possible. And I think the frontier revenue is mostly like unbounded tasks. And the worry is that a lot of those right now are running on VC money. And I think one stat that really worried me was like that Neolabs, so like basically labs that are trying to compete with Anthropik and OpenAI, like the ineffables of the world, have raised 40 bill since 2024. And if you think about it, they’re basically like forced spenders, right? They’re going to have to, let’s say, half their money is on training. Well, actually, the majority of their funds are on training, right? Because they don’t have a model to do inference on yet. And then a lot of that will also be spent on Anthropik and OpenAI tokens to do training runs and software improvements and algorithmic improvements and stuff like that and so I do think that’s my main like short-term worry that I think at some point you will like it’s very reflexive right there’s like all the money being raised in venture like a lot of it is being plowed back into these to these models and if if uh if that slows down um it could get pretty reflexive but on the other side for me it’s like AI is just like hasn’t penetrated the economy at all right and you still have people like meta spending a bunch um improving their ad efficiencies. I think there’s like a lot of the hyperscalers and big companies have a lot of like left to go in terms of what they need to adopt AI. So overall, I’m just I’m still like long. I think that the I sold my all my neoclouds like a while ago because it just and I’ve been looking at buying them back here. But it’s just like in the too hard bucket for me in the sense that as I dig into the businesses, there’s just like so much crap, so much different stuff that you have to understand uh so many different vehicles so much off balance sheet stuff um it’s just really hard to to to underwrite uh I’m sure there’s going to be like some some funds that make a killing doing that but it’s probably like too hard for me um and the debt I’m not too worried about like I looked at the debt I’m not super worried about it right now I think the 15 chart that goes around it’s like it’s made it’s their unsecured debt I think there’s stuff that’s that’s secured by and it’s like moved up with obviously like the risk-free rate I think they’re secured stuff um is like backed by NVIDIA gpus and even the old generations of those are selling for more than they bought them for so it’s like I just think given the fundamental demand drivers we’re still pretty good um yeah that’s sort of where I sit on it
Jason [0:22:52] So you think the band continues to play for for a little while longer the music
José Macedo [0:22:57] Yeah I think we’re have some scares in the middle with the VC funding. But like, VCs just keep raising bigger funds, right? And like, you, I just think, and every single startup is spending like more and more on tokens, I think. So I think at some point, there’s gonna be a scare with that, probably, but I just wouldn’t be trying to time that or, or sell. I think like people are gonna be pretty on top of it. I
Yan Liberman [0:23:19] VC stuff can take a bath, if the last exit starts to get hit, right? If If Anthropics starts to take a material markdown, then that works its way down the VC chain. And that’s where VC funding can take a hit and people kind of tighten their purse strings. So, yeah, like that’s. But I agree, you know, the chart is going to continue grinding higher, but there’s just no world where spend, particularly when it’s debt fueled, will line up perfectly. And so you kind of have, it’s almost like, you when you see the solar system flying, right? Like the sun moves in a straight line and then everything else kind of oscillates around it. So there’s going be periods of overspend and then overspend relative to revenue. And then conversely, you get a positive revenue surprise when things pull back and you kind of see, you a model breakthrough or a use case or whatever. And then all of a sudden revenue cranks higher and debt spend is actually below it. And so you kind of have this periodic, there’s just no world where everyone can time it well in terms of the spend relative to revenue. So you’re going to have periods where people get ahead of their skis and then offset by positive revenue surprises, which I think people are always going to look for the negative revenue side because I think it’s easier to tangibly identify that story. And then the positive side is just you know breakthroughs that haven’t happened yet uh and are much harder to account for directly so you kind of need to just assume that there will be one every x amount of time um and and and so that’s kind of how it trends higher like it’s never going to be in a perfect uh so
Jason [0:24:59] Uh I guess like a quite like so you just say like look at 2000 and 2001 or whatever, as an example, right? Clearly everything in the tech bubble pretty much nuked, good or bad. And then it took, you know, several years for that, you know, to kind of work its way through everything and then to see like the actual real winners of that era start to, you know, manifest.
José Macedo [0:25:23] Was no revenue,
Jason [0:25:24] Right? Yeah, exactly. Right. And I’m so, but my question, I guess to you was going to be, you don’t think that is really a potential outcome. You think it’s more of just kind of these more shallow scares along the way as opposed to kind of like a mass washout event and then kind of recalibration?
José Macedo [0:25:47] Yeah, I think 2000 is very different because like
Jason [0:25:49] The multiples,
José Macedo [0:25:51] There was just like no revenue on any of these things, right? Whereas here, no one believes the revenue, like all these things are trading so cheap that you have to just like not believe that there’s going to be any growth right like on on like NVIDIA meta they’re all trading like sub 20 uh for you know forward price to earnings I I don’t I almost like I I do think it’s hard for me to imagine this doesn’t bubble up eventually once like robotics and AI like all of it’s it’s happening and people get like super over their skis but you the revenue the the thing is so real there’s so much revenue that you would need so much money to to bubble it But for NVIDIA to be trading at 100 price to earnings, it’s kind of impossible, right? It would be like a $40 trillion company or something
Jason [0:26:36] At this point. Nationalize
Yan Liberman [0:26:39] It. Think it’s less about, I think, so obviously the issue with comparing it to 2020 or 2001 is revenue versus no revenue. But I think more important is kind of the spread and then also the durability in particular where, you know, revenue here, when something, when a scare happens, it’s not as if it’s like isolated to a name. It’s pretty systemic, right? And so I think that’s why people apply a pretty big discount to revenues because like when one of the issues comes to light that people are worried about and if it does come to fruition, then there’s like a meaningful step down. And I think it’s just like the correlation of the sources of revenue that
José Macedo [0:27:23] I there’s probably going to be an overbuild there
Yan Liberman [0:27:26] Has to be there’s no way where you don’t
José Macedo [0:27:28] There’s no overbuild I mean the only way there isn’t is like Saudis getting all the projects in Saudi got nuked literally in some cases and then obviously in the US there’s no one wants data sensors so it’s sort of naturally slowing down the bubble which is good but I do think you’re going to get an overbuild eventually and like someone yesterday in a group chat made a good point which is it jevons can be true but like on a much longer time frame where like a lot of people go bust anyway in the meanwhile you know which I think is true and it’s like uh basically the reason that I’m I’m not uh trying to play in like the the the neocloud and stuff anymore um yeah but I think it’s very
Yan Liberman [0:28:14] Different Yeah, think the only way overbuild doesn’t happen is if the denominator comes up, right? If like revenue positively surprises. Or there’s just like a massive drought in revenue that causes a collapse. But as long as there’s some money readily available, there will continue to be an overbuild somewhere. And so, yeah, it’s either massive collapse or revenue just cranks. And it actually wasn’t an overbuild because revenue came in where people expected it or higher.
Kevin Kelly [0:28:42] Yeah and
José Macedo [0:28:42] Like the bio use cases for frontier models as well like all those bio and material science and stuff those take way longer than than the revenue right now right like if if that’s the if the bull case for for uh frontier tokens is that you need them to like internalize these these unbounded tasks right they need to basically become bio labs and trading firms and and you know like rsi labs and all this stuff I think that’s like uh gonna take much longer than their current trajectory.
Kevin Kelly [0:29:13] But can wind up being significant, not just enterprise value accretion mechanisms, but also significant revenue drivers, even though on a longer term time horizon, to your point. And that’s why I keep coming back to nobody has the crystal ball and it’s very much a question of whether or not we’re going get a timing mismatch. I found it interesting that Corey’s even come out and said, hey, if we stopped building today, right? Like we stopped increasing cap packs on new data centers and infrastructure, we would be massively cashflow positive and take that with a grain of salt. But I think the point is the way in which these deals are structured and we can do an entire episode and segment on like compute markets, right. Which are starting to pop up, which I think will be a pretty key piece of the next phase of what’s a, the infrastructure build is a lot of these Neo and even like some of the bare metal operators, like inference provider operators, right now with the big neoclouds, a lot of these deals are done with creditworthy, what lenders consider creditworthy, like AAA or AA-backed hyperscalers or companies that you essentially have signed contracts for the compute before you go and build it, right? The problem, though, is right now those require longer kind of contracts because all these lenders basically want to make sure that the revenue will come in enough so that their costs and that loan is covered. There’s a huge gap there right now. And that’s why you see like this mismatch between on demand, kind of like it’s called like spot pricing for GPUs and compute versus these taker pay rates is there going to be a time, and I think probably relatively soon, where as these contracts start to roll over, one, will they be refinanced restructured at these higher spot rates for GPUs, which again is net positive for these neoclouds. But two, does the demand continue to increase and come in in that shorter term spot market that allows these companies and these inference providers to increase the revenues basically by just charging higher rates on capacity that they have that they don’t have to put on the side for a lower rate, but a longer contract to meet these loan obligations. I think that’s going be a really interesting dynamic that we’ll see play out because to the earlier point around VC-backed companies and the argument goes like there aren’t a ton of VC-backed out there or startups that can commit to a three-year take or pay kind of compute deal. But there’s a lot more potentially that can commit to three months or six months or even a week. And if you have enough of those players with enough capital and enough potential like revenue coming in for these inference providers, you could actually see revenue start to scale up and to Yan’s earlier point, like see positive surprises. But to tie a bow on this, I think Zay, made a really good point that there’s a lot of complexity that goes into how these compute markets actually operate, where the revenue is, where the value flows. And so it doesn’t take as much negative press or negative headlines to scare the market because it almost feels like the market is just waiting almost on a whim for some negative headline to confirm the negative bias that we are in a bubble and that all this is unsustainable, even though underneath the surface, there’s more complexity to what’s actually happening. The market runs with the narrative that’s most relevant or what they can actually grab onto and understand
José Macedo [0:32:41] At a
Kevin Kelly [0:32:41] Headline level.
José Macedo [0:32:43] That’s also in my experience, not what happens in a bubble. Right like in a a bubble you have way less bears generally like uh and it’s not so antsy it’s just like it’s kind of you climb this wall of worry and keep converting people like fuck it I’ll buy I’ll buy I’ll buy you know and then there’s
Jason [0:33:00] Just yeah gotta the newton right you need the bear to capitulate by the top
José Macedo [0:33:04] Exactly yeah yeah you need you need michael bury to to full port core weave before you can
Ceteris [0:33:10] There’s also just like I don’t know there’s so much money dependent on all this that
Kevin Kelly [0:33:15] It’s becoming systemically important
Ceteris [0:33:17] Yeah and it’s like there is a lot of money still going around that there’s still enough fuel to keep this going for a while but I do think that uh you know I talked about this a few months ago too like the highly highly speculative capital those kind of opportunities are like there’s a lot of things went up a lot over the past year, right? With the neoclouds and the memory and other AI names. And so I do think that the worries are bigger now because of all that. And it also just kind of lead to more of this slow grind wall of worry thing. But I do think that this kind of like the Goldilocks case for crypto is like all of this continuing to like grind higher and like enough money is there to kind of support it and keep it going for the next few years. But you’re not getting those, especially in public markets. Maybe you get some of it in private markets, but in public markets, those really crazy outlier type, you know, stand-disk going up as much as it did. The new cloud’s going up as much as it did, right? Maybe there’s some other little pocket that’s going to do that. But I do think that you have kind of seen speculative capital shift a bit. And I mean, think about Bitcoin specifically. I think this sets up for a good year next year for Bitcoin. Because like everyone sold their Bitcoin, right? And then everyone was concerned about Saylor and everybody thought Saylor was going to get liquidated like way lower or he had to send the price way lower and then it didn’t happen. And now he’s in a pretty good position and people don’t even really talk about Saylor anymore when they talk about Bitcoin really. He doesn’t have a huge impact on the market. So I do think that that gives like a pretty good amount of fuel to like crypto markets over the next uh at least like year um is
José Macedo [0:35:08] This your tweet liquid crypto markets are the best arena or whatever
Ceteris [0:35:11] Yeah I just think that like I mean crypto in a bull market is always the best market to be in honestly um easily I think that but I think like there’s kind of this like two opposing forces with Bitcoin where I think the macro stuff, obviously if there’s like the AI trade significantly rolls over and the frontier labs all get blown up, obviously Bitcoin’s not going to do well in that scenario. No,
Jason [0:35:36] Bro, we’ll be good because Quantum won’t crack it and we’ll be chilling.
Ceteris [0:35:40] Under this grinding higher scenario though, think it sets up very well for Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market. And you know, I think with Bitcoin you have a lot of good signals on that side but you still have this quantum thing which I actually think will be okay for Bitcoin um my kind of new base case on quantum is like by the time it happens most people will have migrated or at least they’ll be in like unspent uh utxos which they they can then migrate um and I think like it’ll either be China or the U.S. who gets Satoshi’s coins and all the old all the old coins and I’ve thought about this a lot and I don’t really think like it matters if it’s China or the U.S. who gets the Bitcoin I know some people think that it’s like bearish if China gets it and bullish if the U.S. gets it but I don’t really know if that’s true like just because China doesn’t let their citizens don’t Bitcoin doesn’t mean they don’t want to own a bunch of it right I think that the size
Jason [0:36:42] Of it is
Ceteris [0:36:43] The size of it is so big that like who regardless of which one of them gets it it’s like
Jason [0:36:49] You can’t sell it
Ceteris [0:36:50] You can’t really sell it like you know I’m sure they’ll sell stuff over the years um but I so I think like the way you gotta you gotta think about quantum is you need to take Bitcoin’s 21 million supply into consideration, right? Like you can’t be pricing Bitcoin as if like some amount of coins are lost, right? Because I think you have to go under the assumption that all coins will be active at some point. And then, you know, I think it’s like 90 % chance, probably higher, like 99, that it’s some Chinese or US lab. Like who else is going to have the resources to do this, right? And then if it is a doomsday scenario of like Lazarus, North Korea, I think then people would just fork their coins out. There’s
Yan Liberman [0:37:35] Never going to be that. No,
Ceteris [0:37:37] I don’t think
Yan Liberman [0:37:37] So. I think if I ranked, basically it would be best to worst. It’d be red US would be best, China would be middle, and then blue US would be worse because they would just like nuke it to fund some three days worth of some retarded socialist agenda.
Ceteris [0:37:55] But with all that being said, I agree with that too, that ranking. Like with the quantum thing is I do think though until it happens it it it is kind of breathing life into these other store values like you saw it last year with this year I mean with like Zcash and you’re starting to see more of these right like everyone’s talking about Pearl now I mean I don’t about Pearl I need to look more into it it seems
Yan Liberman [0:38:19] Pearl is actually uh I think it’s a a tool to identify who doesn’t have size. Yeah, I mean, you
Ceteris [0:38:26] Can’t trade
Yan Liberman [0:38:27] It anywhere. There’s 3 million of 24-hour volume, and these dudes have just been going ham about it like they’re full-porting it. It’s a very clear indication
Kevin Kelly [0:38:35] Of who has no size. There are a good amount of people who, there’s like a handful of like OTC brokers that like have direct connections with like the miners, right? They’re like facilitating some of these trades. But yeah I I mean I personally haven’t I’m not aping it on safe trade
Ceteris [0:38:52] No and like everyone’s talking and people are running this trade of like it’s going to get listed on coinbase or something by before then I don’t know that just seems like the classic top yeah you know like all these people that can’t sell now have all this liquidity on coin
José Macedo [0:39:07] Yeah but I think Pearl has a really good narrative though
Yan Liberman [0:39:09] I agree
José Macedo [0:39:10] Like
Ceteris [0:39:10] Yes for
José Macedo [0:39:11] Sure I think it’s like and I think it makes sense like it’s just it’s it’s I mean some people pitch it in in a in a way that really doesn’t make sense and I think a lot of people don’t get it based on some questions I’ve been getting about it and it’s somehow penetrated to outside of crypto too like I’ve been getting questions about it from from vc friends and and and stuff like this which is kind of interesting and they all think it’s like a decentralized inference network and which is like I mean and then I I I meant to look into this actually if there’s a way for them to get to to that from what they’re doing now Because if it succeeds, you do get into this pretty interesting place where everyone who has a large amount of GPUs is sort of incentivized to run this on top of it. And so you end up with just a lot of compute power. And the initial thesis for me was just, well, initial thesis is just compute power equals secure network. And it’ll probably have more hash power than Bitcoin at that point. And so it’ll be like very valuable. But there’s another world where maybe then you have like this amazing supply side to do other shit with, like decentralized inference or something like this. And they are like pretty cracked. Remember we met them in SF, Yan. They’re pretty cracked. So I don’t know. I think it’s a really interesting one. I bought a bit of it, but I just don’t know how to buy. I didn’t know. Yeah, somehow I didn’t consider the OTC side of things. Yeah, it’s just really hard to buy.
Ceteris [0:40:32] Yeah, but I do think you’ll
Yan Liberman [0:40:33] See more
Ceteris [0:40:33] Of it was more liquid. It’s not
José Macedo [0:40:35] Just like derive
Ceteris [0:40:35] There’s also like I mean there’s like this and I don’t own any of these other ones so I’m not talking I own Zcash okay that’s like my store value coin I like there’s like this quantus one that a lot of people are talking about um
José Macedo [0:40:48] That thing ripped
Ceteris [0:40:49] Yeah ripped so hard there’s like ore on Solana which is still it’s like a very it’s like 50 mil or something but it’s starting to get like more interest like you’re seeing this like people interested in these alternative store values to Bitcoin whereas like you know the way Bitcoin when as early days it was money and everything was the best Bitcoin. Then everyone was like, okay, Bitcoin’s money. Then the next cycle was like ICOs and these grand ideas of like decentralized Uber and all this other bullshit. Then the last cycle was like L1s and DeFi, right? But like three years ago, the industry had kind of come to that as consensus, except for like the Ethmaxies that like, okay, Bitcoin is a store of value. There’s no room for anything else, right? I think that’s changed a lot because of quantum. And whether or not that’s right or wrong I don’t know but uh it does seem it does seem like it’s like reignited the interest in buying store values outside of Bitcoin um and the thing is with quantum it’s like it’s not disprovable it’s basically just like one day it’s going to happen so until it happens it’s always going to be a little bit of this headwind maybe if it doesn’t happen for like 10 years like the longer it goes on like maybe people start to think okay maybe we’re never going to get it we’re never going to get it sort of deal um but
Kevin Kelly [0:42:03] Yeah as quantum has quantum risk or the the recent rise in discussions about it actually changed no your guys positioning
Ceteris [0:42:12] No except for it
José Macedo [0:42:14] Has for me
Ceteris [0:42:14] I got me I owned like z cash so yes in that sense but it didn’t really make me it changed my positioning not because I’m personally like afraid of it but because of how I think other people are going to think about quantum and how that’s going to change how they allocate. So yes, actually, the answer to that would be yes. I mean, the Zcash chart looks pretty great again.
Jason [0:42:38] The classic beauty contest predicting what other people are going to think.
Ceteris [0:42:42] Mean, that’s what you got to do,
Jason [0:42:43] Right? Yeah, I mean, it is. It doesn’t really matter.
José Macedo [0:42:47] It’s too, Jason, right?
Jason [0:42:48] I don’t know how to underwrite it. I’ve been, yeah. You
José Macedo [0:42:51] Said it’s the first time you didn’t feel comfy holding Bitcoin
Jason [0:42:53] For like
José Macedo [0:42:54] Just a decade plus. That’s basically what happened to me. Had like this Bitcoin stash.
Jason [0:42:58] I haven’t done anything with it, but like I’m really thinking about it, you know? Like I’m seriously thinking about it. Like it’s not something I would just like go and like, you know, mindlessly shill at like Thanksgiving to my family today. Like, you know, five years ago, yeah, for sure. But like today, like, like if they asked me, like, what’s what’s this like quantum risk? I would be I would have to be honest and I’d be like, I really have no no real way to, you know, accurately underwrite it. And I would be lying if I did. And I don’t think it’s as clear as it was.
Ceteris [0:43:32] I mean, dude, I was on a K anecdote, but I was on a date with a naturopath.
Jason [0:43:37] Nice flex, dude.
Ceteris [0:43:38] And she was
Yan Liberman [0:43:39] Asking me. What does that mean?
Ceteris [0:43:41] Naturopath it’s like
Jason [0:43:43] Uh
Yan Liberman [0:43:44] The fuck
Jason [0:43:45] Yeah I’ve never heard that word
Yan Liberman [0:43:47] With a
Kevin Kelly [0:43:47] Relationship but not in the game for too
Yan Liberman [0:43:49] Long it sounds like a canadian scam
Ceteris [0:43:51] It’s like uh it’s like uh a doctor who
José Macedo [0:43:56] You don’t even know what it is
Ceteris [0:43:58] Does like natural natural like uh remedies and stuff like that
Jason [0:44:03] Yeah why
Yan Liberman [0:44:04] Are you going
Ceteris [0:44:05] On
José Macedo [0:44:05] A date like the homeopathy thing
Jason [0:44:07] Yeah
Ceteris [0:44:08] You’re
Yan Liberman [0:44:08] Just hungry
Ceteris [0:44:09] It’s It’s homeopathy. There is like, no, no, it’s honestly.
Kevin Kelly [0:44:14] It’s a system of alternative medicine that focuses on natural non-invasive therapies and the
Ceteris [0:44:18] Body’s some of it’s honestly good. Some of it’s good. Like you can kind of tell some, yeah, some naturopaths are like complete quacks, but other ones are like, it’s just about like, you know, what food is, do you react poorly to like fixing your diet, stuff like that. And it’s like low risk type stuff. Anyways my point with this is that she was asking me like how worried I am about quantum with Bitcoin I was like how the fuck do you like know about this stuff right
Jason [0:44:46] Is she actually like
Yan Liberman [0:44:47] She probably looked you up
Jason [0:44:48] Technology or
Yan Liberman [0:44:49] This guy’s gonna like this question
Ceteris [0:44:51] She can’t really look at it um but I was like okay this is interesting that
Jason [0:44:56] Is this something that normies actually know about or is she like
Ceteris [0:45:00] Do I mean she said that she started to like she’s become like interested in it so she does have a bit of an interest in like crypto um but it was just like interesting to me that she you know she was talking about how when she asked her financial advisor he was like no don’t touch any of that uh which I was like honestly it’s a fine advice for him to give but um yeah it was just it was interesting that she was like is quantum like gonna destroy Bitcoin like she straight up asked me that
Jason [0:45:30] I mean my my um my uncle as well because like obviously over the years I’ve been like kind of shilling them Bitcoin and stuff and they you know they’ve bought Bitcoin they have it they have like Bitcoin and and eth unfortunately a little bit still uh in like uh wallets for for their grandchildren and stuff and and he was asking about it because he’s like obviously kind of following along now because he’s bought some stuff and I was like dude I actually don’t have an answer for you right now I really don’t. I think if you talk to
Kevin Kelly [0:45:57] People. Kind goes back to what we were just talking about with AI, though, too. It’s like the negative headlines,
Jason [0:46:02] What people
Kevin Kelly [0:46:02] Just kind of grasp onto. Again, I’m not discounting the risk. And to be honest, I thought Luke Martin’s latest interview with Nick Carter on Quantum was super interesting. Highly recommend people go listen to that, too. Shout out Convergence, our new flagship show. But I was just curious like if it’s actually impacted like for me it’s made me let’s say more bullish than I was on something like Zcash but it hasn’t really changed my allocation that much and maybe that’s in part because I also sit in a similar seat to Jason where I have a really hard time underwriting what that risk really looks like and so if anything it’s more what people will assume or what people where people gravitate towards
José Macedo [0:46:48] But I think it’s like position
Kevin Kelly [0:46:49] For it
José Macedo [0:46:50] Sorry kevin good
Kevin Kelly [0:46:51] No no I
José Macedo [0:46:52] Think it’s I think it’s any kind of risk whether it’s the quantum or like public key cryptography breaking all this stuff is just bad for Bitcoin because Bitcoin cannot adapt to it you know so it’s just like all these things I feel like are just like very bullish for the alternatives and it changed my allocation the way that I sold some of my like long-term Bitcoin holdings and put them into Zcash and would love to put some into into Pearl or whatever else is a those are the only ones I’ve really thought about but and I’m just less confident on on Bitcoin it’s like it’s harder to hold like you said and on a 10-year on a 10-year time horizon
Ceteris [0:47:33] Oh no I think I think I think next year Bitcoin is gonna do pretty well I think it’ll get back to 120 or above uh
Jason [0:47:41] I’d be insane I’d love that
Ceteris [0:47:43] But I do think that like these other ones are going to go crazy right and then they’re going to be brutal like they’re going to go through an absolutely disgusting like bear market um but I just think I just think you’re gonna even Zcash like I think Zcash should go to 5k but I think it could go to like under 1k after that you know it’s like it’s just what these things kind of do they’re like store of value type assets right um but But yeah, like I think money is going to be a big theme for the coins next year. Think the two big themes that I’m writing about this for a year ahead is like money and then just more of these, you know, token protocols that have good tokens. Think like good fundamental token designs. I think we’re kind of coming a bit full circle on this where a lot of people are realizing that if you just have a token that like Hyperliquid did so much for the industry, man, like so much and people are just are just realizing that if you build a token that you throw like value to it it’s going to do well people are going to like it and like if you launch a token you don’t have the a lot of the regulatory concerns that you do with like having equity and um I think that you’re just going to see a lot more like really thoughtfully well-designed tokens and it’s It’s kind of like a DDoS attack where it’s a perfect regulatory environment to do it now. And the more and more of these projects that do this, you know, the better everything comes. Just, I’m really bullish that like tokens are being unfucked. And then it’s like, you have a lot of the unlocks past the industry versus like in equities and AI equities all the unlocks are starting right and so you really have like these very divergent forces between everything where it’s still a token picker’s market obviously but like again we’ve seen breadth go up right like Zcash is still crushing it venice is you know still doing around but like you know and lit and all that but you’re seeing more coins recently too um and more interesting pockets before like paper trade took 140 mil of lick out of the market but
Jason [0:49:54] That was a tough one
Ceteris [0:49:56] It just yeah I and yeah I just I think it’s like you definitely want to be paying attention I think that there
Jason [0:50:09] Has been
Ceteris [0:50:10] More sorry kind of like interest like you’re seeing the hooks people are doing stuff with the hooks um there’s some other stuff going on in robin hood you know it’s just Solana is doing well again I don’t know
Jason [0:50:24] On the paper trade thing um maybe like Yan or jose um since you guys have a lot of experience with token work is there actually a solution for that or is it just that as soon as they make the token transferable perps markets get listed and then the native token and the protocol itself is at risk of you know a oracle type or not even just like uh you know somebody with enough size to move Bitcoin price or whatever on on Hyperliquid is there like no solution like is there are they just like kind of stuck in the sense that like that token as soon as they make a transferable opens you know that you know existential risk to the protocol because like that was my read of it like I did yeah if I’m being blunt like I I didn’t see like a real solution there
José Macedo [0:51:13] I haven’t thought about it enough um I think like I’m I’m uh sort of discovered I’m fairly close with with uh with one of the one of the guys and I think those I think if anyone is going to figure it out it’s it’s them I really think they’re some of the smartest people in in crypto um it’s hard but but it’s kind of the same issue that all the stablecoin uh protocols had to some extent like luna or or just that the the short like shorting a stablecoin is is kind of free right because like worst case it goes back to
Jason [0:51:46] To one
José Macedo [0:51:46] Goes back to one and then you you also like you have added juice with shorting the native token if you do manage to to de-peg it so it’s just like always, and this is like kind of like a worse version of that because it’s sort of like built into the mechanism. So I don’t know. Yan, have you thought about it?
Yan Liberman [0:52:02] I I’m sure they’ve thought about it now I don’t yeah um
Jason [0:52:06] Because like I put like 30 minutes of thought into it after their you know their posts and I was just kind of like somebody with a pretty smooth brain like myself it seems like there’s not too much wiggle room here um because like like to me it was like okay well like you would combat that by like reducing like or like capping position sizes or whatever but like as soon as you do that it kind of you know takes
Yan Liberman [0:52:28] Away from
Jason [0:52:28] The whole
Yan Liberman [0:52:29] Yeah one issue that I think they have that that uh so they emulated rollbit um which was kind of like as a brilliant product but I think one probably issue they have is that Rollbit would hedge their underlying positions, right? So you kind of, well, for one, it’s through their platform. So they knew who was a sharp and who was a sucker. And so you hedge the guys who would consistently win or like, you know, maybe the book was skewed against them. So there was a natural hedge baked in. But oftentimes you try and hedge out the winners and like take naked exposure against guys who didn’t trade well. Obviously, that’s harder to do here because people can spit up wallets and there’s no way to stop that. But it’s more about the more delta neutral your book can be, the more OI and capacity you can take on because effectively your just exposure is the delta. It’s not like how many, how much long or how much short individually. Julie, it’s kind of the difference. So I think that part hurts them a bit in terms of scaling. But I don’t know that they’ve actually – I think they’ve hit some limits. But I don’t know if that’s been a big headwind for them on that front. Check, actually. But, I mean, so the issue is what? That creating transferability allows folks to short and the token goes down.
Jason [0:54:00] Yeah, they like if you if you pull up paper trades initial thread, they have that like one paragraph where they kind of like do that rough example of like a 10 million Bitcoin short or like a 15 million Bitcoin short paired with like a 10 million dollar, you know, paper herp short would be enough to essentially. New. Right. Yeah. Scroll down here a little bit on the left. Yeah. Right there. For example. Yeah and so like if like obviously like this change like the numbers change with size obviously and like whatever the protocol is but like
Yan Liberman [0:54:41] You have to kind of limit exposure to assets where it would cost more than that to manipulate like it you can’t manipulate btc with a 15 mil trade
Jason [0:54:51] No but people
José Macedo [0:54:52] That they do already so like yeah you can all their algorithm and stuff and risk metrics are tailored to avoiding that, right? To basically, and even then it’s fucking difficult, right? There was some whale that exploited it. They exploited it on ETH on first night. It made like one and half million bucks or something. So even then it’s hard. But the thing is this introduces another sort of lever that they can play with where if they can be short the native token in size, these attacks get like way more profitable, right? Like the expected value just goes up a lot. Because if you succeed, you don’t only make money on the attack, you make money on your short on the protocol too. And I don’t see, I think you just, there is probably a way to do it, but maybe it makes the, but you increase the risk of this thing going insolvent, which means paper’s worth zero, right? It’s transferable, but it’s worthless. Or you might just have to make the risk parameters so, like the queue so much longer or like, Like, yeah, I don’t know how you allow
Yan Liberman [0:55:53] 1 ,000x leverage. I think that’s kind of going back to the off-balance sheet hedging or just the ability to maintain some delta-neutral component. Like, if you manipulate it one way and someone turns a big profit, there’s a bunch of folks on the other side getting licked, right? So you kind of have to just try and maintain delta-neutral status to the highest degree possible, and that kind of lets you scale. Then the other element is trying to do some, but then like that’s a different beast altogether. It’s no longer a DEX or decentralized. Like you have a centralized part of me. I mean, you know, like what do you think HLP is doing, right? That’s just like the team running a market maker, you know, creating liquidity for their platform. So I think you could probably tranche it and be delta neutral to some degree and try and create that way. I think you could also create limits on upside, which harms UX, but it just allows, like you kind of, the opposite of an ADL, but you basically auto-close positions when they’re too far into profit or something along those lines and you have to be transparent about it. And what you’re gearing for is not like long-term holds, but rather just short-term trading within windows within sizes that you’re comfortable with. I think it’s solvable with risk. The question is basically how much do these parameters impact UX and cause people to step away from the platform?
Jason [0:57:35] It’ll be interesting, right? Like it’s definitely an experiment. It wasn’t something I was like, you know, super interested to mess around with on launch, but like uh I’m clearly watching
José Macedo [0:57:44] It was a great idea to mess around with on launch for us
Jason [0:57:47] Yeah I
José Macedo [0:57:48] Didn’t either but but I I know some people that did
Ceteris [0:57:50] Yeah I should I like
Jason [0:57:51] I went golfing instead it
Ceteris [0:57:53] Was so obvious that you should just try and lose as fast as possible in the first block
Jason [0:57:57] I just have something very like I
José Macedo [0:57:59] Just like you either win or you win basically on
Ceteris [0:58:01] That I did I own some of that paper strategy thing and
Jason [0:58:05] How is that doing it’s
Ceteris [0:58:07] Been getting hammered once it was doing very well but now that when they announced that
Jason [0:58:11] That trend yeah
Ceteris [0:58:12] Um there’s no more transferable it’s like it’s hard it’s like you you’re buying this liquid version of something that isn’t you don’t know like the thing is it’s already it’s bought back like a lot of its supply and everything um But yeah, I think it could be… Actually, I don’t really want… This thing is a low market cap now. It’s gone down so much. It’s like the only liquid
Jason [0:58:34] Token. Strategy.
Ceteris [0:58:35] It’s like the only liquid token. They only 2 % of the paper supply.
Jason [0:58:40] Do they stake it all? Is that what they do?
Ceteris [0:58:42] Stake it all. And actually, they’re outpacing the paper inflation too. And the price went down so much, so their buybacks are burning more. So if this blows over two months from now, might actually end up being good for them, right?
José Macedo [0:58:56] This is the actual Joe McCann strategy. You could actually run the farming the Hyperliquid airdrop by getting liquidated strategy.
Ceteris [0:59:05] Yeah, this is
José Macedo [0:59:06] Basically…
Jason [0:59:07] It was such a good tweet.
Ceteris [0:59:09] Yeah, we’ll
José Macedo [0:59:10] See how
Ceteris [0:59:10] It goes. I think that it was interesting that they, you know, I don’t Kinetiq as a disclosure, they’re launching their main nets. Jason really pilled me on it. Same with some other people at Delphi. It is interesting that they didn’t just wait for that to go live.
Jason [0:59:27] Is that eliminates like the cues? Yeah,
Ceteris [0:59:30] It’s just like it. So maybe maybe they’ll maybe they will end up launching some there. But I think this showed a good appetite for people wanting to use hype adjacent products obviously the founders of paper trade are very well known when respected within hype so that went a long way with them too I think that a lot of people know the Kinetiq founders but I don’t know if they have the same cachet cachet then as those guys right but yeah and like again like are people going to use this now especially because the supply is getting close to 12 bill right which is like the max um and so losing on there you’re no longer I think if you
José Macedo [1:00:13] I not expect if
Ceteris [1:00:14] You lose a trade now it takes like three years of like the
Jason [1:00:17] Year to
Ceteris [1:00:17] Get back right I like current rate so I
José Macedo [1:00:21] I did not expect to hear to get people’s to hear people so bowled up on an OP stack layer 2 in the year of our Lord of
Ceteris [1:00:30] 2026. But the infra of it, like, I’ve said
Jason [1:00:36] This solves the problem, José. I’ve said this
Ceteris [1:00:38] A few times. We have too many chains, but that doesn’t mean a new one can’t be successful. And like, you saw that with Robinhood, right? And will Connecticut be successful? I don’t know. Like, maybe.
Kevin Kelly [1:00:50] Sick hype video, though.
Jason [1:00:52] Awesome video.
Kevin Kelly [1:00:53] Bullish
Ceteris [1:00:54] Start. Yeah, like you don’t even know this is crypto. That’s how bullish it is. So we’ll see. It’s not about the tag. It’s about like people. Hype EVM is just not.
Jason [1:01:06] There’s a button in Hyperliquid that allows you to click it and transfer your money to Hyper EVM. There’s billions of dollars sitting in Hyperliquid that just wants to click that button and go mess around on Jane.
Ceteris [1:01:20] And like think
Jason [1:01:20] About the social
Ceteris [1:01:21] Traders. Like the social labs don’t have hype evm because it’s such a bad experience right you get like a performance uh like I to like to buy Kinetiq you can’t use fomo or whatever because it’s only on like hype evm right and wait until fomo and the pump app add support for this like one now you have all the hype eco tokens that’s like good for the hype eco I feel like and good for hype right um so all it is is like it’s kind of just redoing the hyper evm thesis um and I think that there’s a are they putting buybacks towards hype or no
Jason [1:01:58] Yes it’s 50 50 Kinetiq hype buyback
Ceteris [1:02:01] So it’s like it’s like decently that seems
José Macedo [1:02:03] Aligned it’s like it’s
Jason [1:02:06] Called but
Ceteris [1:02:06] It’s like actual revenue but it’s like it’s way
Jason [1:02:08] More than
Ceteris [1:02:09] The eth roll-ups though the eth roll-ups paid like 0.1 percent of fees right this is going 50 50. So right it’s like the Ethereum roll-ups they paid ethda cost okay these guys are playing hyper liquid like just no straight up
Yan Liberman [1:02:23] Like what are they going to send them their tens of dollars of revenue
Ceteris [1:02:26] What Kinetiq
Yan Liberman [1:02:29] No like
Ceteris [1:02:30] Oh they oh I mean base base and robin hood make a lot right yeah if they
José Macedo [1:02:35] Were I based on testnet it would be like 250k a year or something in in hype buybacks
Yan Liberman [1:02:40] Well there’s nothing live on it it’s
José Macedo [1:02:43] I mean test nights get spammed right
Ceteris [1:02:44] I mean Solana made I mean Solana made a billion dollars one year of like rev so like
Jason [1:02:52] Yeah Solana
José Macedo [1:02:52] Is the example where this worked out right this people did want to buy the alts and the memes did well people wanted to to gamble with their native coin there’s been but I I have heard this like many times over the years like it’s the first alt on x chain you know and it’s just like these things sometimes don’t work
Ceteris [1:03:08] No no oh 100 and I don’t think
Jason [1:03:09] That’s
José Macedo [1:03:10] Like Bitcoin l2s right I think Bitcoin l2s is like a great example like ordinals bitcoiners have been waiting for
Ceteris [1:03:16] Yeah
Jason [1:03:16] But
José Macedo [1:03:16] Something to speculate with their Bitcoin on
Ceteris [1:03:18] That’s the thing like yeah they were still slow because they were like actually using Bitcoin it’s like don’t actually use Bitcoin
Jason [1:03:24] And bitcoiners don’t actually want to do
José Macedo [1:03:26] Don’t make it a real l2
Ceteris [1:03:27] Yeah I
José Macedo [1:03:29] Mean there’s no such
Ceteris [1:03:29] Thing as a real l2 in the market anyways
José Macedo [1:03:31] That’s fair
Ceteris [1:03:32] Like did you see the l2b guy had like this amazing troll the other day and he basically launched a whole framework for people to launch roll-ups that just uses the gnosis safe contract and he was like introducing the zero proof system like it’s faster than any proof system on Ethereum because you don’t need proofs but like that’s essentially how roll-ups work today right so his troll and like there’s a guy who runs l2b right and his his thing was like none of these roll-ups actually do any like every roll up is a stage zero and even vitalik comes out now and says like yeah it doesn’t make sense for robin hood to ever move from stage zero and so it’s like it’s like what is the point of like the tech behind these things right um so I don’t know
Jason [1:04:12] You’re not bullish uh hype season hype evm season jose doesn’t
José Macedo [1:04:17] I bought bought Kinetiq um I don’t I don’t
Jason [1:04:20] Just funding my
José Macedo [1:04:21] When you when you yeah if if you uh yeah if if if people are bullish the delphi are bullish on something I just buy it I don’t over
Ceteris [1:04:29] I mean
Jason [1:04:29] Jason got actually
Ceteris [1:04:30] Mad at me because I was like not doing it he was like
Jason [1:04:33] He’s like yeah I’m not gonna turn on my VPN and go buy Kinetiq I’m like dude I was like dude send me USDC now and I’ll buy it for you free of charge
José Macedo [1:04:42] I love that
Ceteris [1:04:44] I just like also add hey
José Macedo [1:04:45] I know what you’re be sharing
Ceteris [1:04:46] My taxes it’s like I have a new address I need to reconcile
Jason [1:04:50] Taxes dude you’re making money what’s going on
Yan Liberman [1:04:54] Yeah
José Macedo [1:04:54] You’re gonna be sharing and Kinetiq on Thanksgiving dinner instead of Yeah, exactly. Everyone send me your USDC
Jason [1:05:01] Right now.
José Macedo [1:05:04] I’ll
Yan Liberman [1:05:04] Just send you my Kinetiq.
José Macedo [1:05:06] It’s great.
José Macedo [1:05:09] I love how Thanksgiving in US is a time to be grateful and a time to source exit liquidity.
Yan Liberman [1:05:15] You don’t dump on your friends. Dump on your family.
Jason [1:05:20] Oh, man. No, I do think it’ll be a I think cool crypto or whatever his Twitter handle has a really good one sentence. It’s either an overvalued LST, as it currently stands, or a really undervalued L2 on hype.
Ceteris [1:05:37] Yeah, I thought that was fair for him too. That guy had 10 mil of Derive on chain.
Jason [1:05:42] Oh, that guy’s massive when it comes to these things. And he uses all of these apps like Derive. He uses the Kinetiq Markets app. So, like, I generally trust his opinion on the products, at least that. He definitely has more size than I do when it comes to trading these things. So, like, if he likes Derive and thinks it’s a good experience and does most of his business there for on-chain options, you know, it’s probably a reason to take a look at it.
Ceteris [1:06:09] There’s one person you can have faith in is the Kool-Aid man.
Kevin Kelly [1:06:16] Great account entertaining account are you still crushed it you’d still be bullish I think we had this conversation somewhat recently if elysium isn’t that main that’s november 9th right if that’s not as successful as maybe some people think like are you would you still be bullish given everything else that’s going on
Ceteris [1:06:38] Oh no I bought
Jason [1:06:40] It no I think for like it it to succeed like uh yeah it needs to yeah you just need to see it see see projects coming over I mean I’m pretty sure they have a few things lined up for like main net launch or whatever
Yan Liberman [1:06:54] Hypercall is launching their day one
Jason [1:06:56] Right you just yeah like I think it’ll be pretty clear within like you know a month or two after launch if uh things are you know if the
Ceteris [1:07:05] Trajectory is a chain that like launched and then it took like a while to get going because usually it’s the opposite right where it’s like like
Jason [1:07:14] You know pretty fast like
Ceteris [1:07:16] So many predisposits so much hype and then like down only right
Jason [1:07:20] What I like if if the market’s in like
Ceteris [1:07:22] Definitely one yeah
Jason [1:07:23] If the market’s in the shit but you’re still seeing teams move over and traction there that would be like a sign to maybe let it breathe a little bit but um yeah I think you’ll generally see the signposts you want to see within like 30 to 60 days.
Yan Liberman [1:07:36] Are you talking about price action or fundamental?
Jason [1:07:39] No, just like actual people using it. TPL. Yeah. Like you’ll be able to see people moving money from Hyperliquid over to Hyper EVM.
Ceteris [1:07:47] You know what will be interesting is to see the amount of money coming from like other sources and then like the actual hype being bridged right from Hyperliquid, right? Because maybe it’s just like the Robinhood degens are going to move over, right?
Jason [1:08:00] It’s very possible. Like it’s mercenary capital, right? Like I don’t think anybody on Robin Hood has like any loyalty for example to robin hood um whereas people on Solana do have loyalty to Solana to an extent right like people on eth have loyalty to eth to an extent it’s pretty like siloed to to that degree and so like I think like hype has that like I think there’s a bunch of people who just want to do shit on hype myself included I
Ceteris [1:08:28] Think hype can get it because like if you look at the successful all two l2s they’re all corpo chains right and it’s you’re not really going to have loyalty to those like you’re not going to have loyalty to coinbase or robin hood or whoever um and you know hype is like Solana in that regard and it’s a good point about people like no matter how many Ethereum evm l2s launch Solana is still going to be Solana right like Solana to me is still the best and they’ve released alpenglow today which is a new consensus mechanism like still by far the most complete like overall blockchain um I mean I don’t I really don’t know how sold the asset will do at this point but like just from like overall blockchain like definitely a tier above everyone else to me um and they’ll always have that like they’ll always have that like strong developer and user community right that is hard to like fork out um and Hyperliquid can be similar now are people going to treat elysium like that right like it’s giving 50 to height so that’s like that’s pretty good um but right
Jason [1:09:42] Well there’s
Ceteris [1:09:42] Still another token right there’s still another token
Jason [1:09:45] I think it comes down to like like we wrote about this in 2024 when rinko was was around um when we were writing about Solana a lot um but people have this like especially in crypto people have loyalty whether or not it’s like you know fairly placed or misplaced or whatever to wherever they make it if you’ve made it on eth like you spend a lot of your time doing shit on eth if you make it on Solana spend a lot of your time doing shit on Solana and
Ceteris [1:10:17] Made it on bowden
Jason [1:10:21] That was such a good meme and
Kevin Kelly [1:10:23] Then gave it all back on both
Yan Liberman [1:10:24] Yeah as you say nobody made it on
Ceteris [1:10:25] You made it on Bowdoin, you gave it back on Trump.
Yan Liberman [1:10:28] Yeah.
Jason [1:10:29] But like, I do think there is like a very clear pattern in crypto where like we called it back then like patrons of the chain, like you get airdropped or whatever, or like the native token of a big ecosystem, Sol ETH runs up a shitload, you 10X your portfolio, and then you go dabble on chain, maybe get a Jito airdrop for depositing one Sol and you get like a 30k airdrop or some shit, right? Like these things build loyalty and the best way to build loyalty in crypto is to make people rich on your protocol, right? Like it’s clear, like it might be passe to say that or whatever, but like it’s obvious. That’s how you build community. It’s how you build reputation. It’s how you build loyalty. And so hype would clearly be the only place where you’ve had a native token 20, 30, 40, 50 X from TGE. You’ve had a huge amount of people quite literally make it make generational wealth on Hyperliquid and there’s nothing for them to do give them the opportunity to speculate in Hyperliquid land and they will it’s like it seems so clear um like so clear that I’m like is this actually that easy type thing that’s like how I think about it like the keep it simple stupid strategy
Ceteris [1:11:43] Yeah
José Macedo [1:11:44] Fine, I’ll buy more.
Ceteris [1:11:47] I think you could see some… Just talking about going into year-end, once midterms are over, the people don’t take effect until January, so I think you could see some crazy shit, right?
Jason [1:11:58] You got two months.
Kevin Kelly [1:12:01] It’s starting to run. It’s starting to run a little bit.
Jason [1:12:04] And you’ll notice it never came anywhere close to that strike price for their airdrop, the 26 cent whatever it was it
Yan Liberman [1:12:13] Came with it came like two cents
Jason [1:12:17] Okay so 10 bro come on
Yan Liberman [1:12:20] What is 10 percent on
Jason [1:12:21] That it’d
Yan Liberman [1:12:22] Take like 100k to move that I’m
Jason [1:12:24] Just saying it didn’t go below I think it shows decent demand I think people are buying
Ceteris [1:12:30] Up the pump chart I’m actually curious what it looks like on the longer that looks pretty good yeah
Jason [1:12:37] Pretty good nice little pullback
Kevin Kelly [1:12:41] Grinding higher
Jason [1:12:42] Now
Ceteris [1:12:43] I ended up getting rid of all the rest of my stonk I don’t know maybe that thing rips but it’s just like I don’t know man pump I changed my mind every day if it’s going to two bill or ten and if I want to own it or I don’t like seeing them like do all this kimchi stuff I’m kind of just like ah do I want to even own the token but it’s like I should probably put it in like a locked contract for six months and just like so I can’t save yourself
Jason [1:13:04] From yourself
Ceteris [1:13:05] And see how it goes because I don’t know man it is seem like it does seem like a pretty strong
Jason [1:13:12] There’s a bit there dude somebody’s been in that every day pretty
José Macedo [1:13:15] Much why didn’t you include it in your in your speculation report actually jason
Jason [1:13:18] I thought I I mean so this is like part one it’s like I just wanted to lay it down and then like in the year ahead uh I’m gonna expand on like individual names more it would be like hard to do both in the year ahead so I figured do this now and then actually get it
José Macedo [1:13:32] But you consider them the house
Jason [1:13:34] Uh yeah to yeah to a degree 90
Ceteris [1:13:37] Now actually you should pull up this tweet I’m gonna send it to kevin
Jason [1:13:41] I’ve just been so personally burnt and it’s not even pump’s fault right it’s not pump’s fault it’s just me being a like a terrible trader on the day or whatever um I’ve just been like I just have like a problem when I get burned on a token from like myself I just like don’t like going back to the well again I just
Yan Liberman [1:13:58] I think it’s a fair strategy
Jason [1:13:59] Um yeah
Ceteris [1:14:01] I mean look at this with pump man it’s like it just it this happens this has happened at least three times now where it’s like
Yan Liberman [1:14:07] Well that was robin hood chain so it’s like hard like you map
Jason [1:14:11] Well even if you go back to like the box inversely right
Ceteris [1:14:14] For sure it’s mostly robin hood chain
Jason [1:14:16] Does this does this go back to like last year though like when when they
Ceteris [1:14:20] Had on site it does he actually has really good site
Jason [1:14:22] Is this adam oh yeah he launched his own site yeah
Ceteris [1:14:25] He um he if you but if you look at the robin hood period that’s actually what you should if we can pull that up hopefully his site works
Jason [1:14:34] Out if
Ceteris [1:14:35] You actually look where robin hood goes crazy pump metrics don’t actually really drop robin hood actually looks like net new and then it just kind of dies but pump is kind of like stable uh throughout the whole time
José Macedo [1:14:47] Is wild I don’t understand I don’t understand this pump revenue chart it’s it’s it’s it it befuddles me
Jason [1:14:56] Yep I’m in the same boat I don’t I
Ceteris [1:14:58] Think a lot of people are in that camp and it’s kind of like the longer it goes on
José Macedo [1:15:02] Yeah you’re
Ceteris [1:15:03] Kind of like maybe I don’t even know how much of their cash they spend like I know that they’re buying people to use the pump app but um it’s like what else are they spending I feel like I feel like it’s such an aura loss um I saw sobe like no shade or whatever but he tweeted that like he moved all this stuff to the to the pump app and he was like a top fomo trader and it was like uh you know I don’t know I feel like fomo organically got a lot of the good people to use it and pump I go on the pump app and like I don’t know like anybody on that app it’s like totally different crowd whereas I feel like fomo has more of the ct I know you know but pump has the money to like literally buy everybody on fomo if everybody kind of like took their deals right so and I think I think pump mobile app revenue is actually it might be above fomo revenue now I saw like two charts of them they basically just went in opposite directions
Jason [1:16:01] Who like who is signing up for these things man like what
José Macedo [1:16:06] Dude that video that Yan posted in the in the chat in the in reads that’s that’s who’s signing up like dudes in Dubai just just the most like
Yan Liberman [1:16:18] Bottom feeder of people
Jason [1:16:21] God damn
José Macedo [1:16:23] I was watching an anime
Yan Liberman [1:16:26] We can bundle this shit
Ceteris [1:16:28] Oh that
José Macedo [1:16:28] Was So
Ceteris [1:16:29] That’s the crazy thing is these guys literally
José Macedo [1:16:31] Are talking about crime.
Ceteris [1:16:33] How they bought 50 %? They found this meme. They created a coin. They created all the socials, bought 50 % of it. And then he was like, at the peak, it was worth this. It was like, well, yeah, you won’t have to
José Macedo [1:16:45] Supply. It 400K. It was 400K. His biggest win was on a 400K market cap shitter where he made 100 and
Jason [1:16:52] Something K.
Ceteris [1:16:53] So
José Macedo [1:16:54] These dude own like 30 % of the supply. It’s just crazy
Ceteris [1:16:57] To me that people, it’s like that Wolf of, is it Wolf of Wall Street, the movie? The big short. And it’s that meme where it’s like
Jason [1:17:08] They’re confessing. They’re
Yan Liberman [1:17:11] Bragging.
Ceteris [1:17:12] They’re bragging. I don’t understand how people, how this just became so normalized to so many people.
Jason [1:17:22] It’s social trading, man. It’s why I hate all
José Macedo [1:17:25] Of it. It
Yan Liberman [1:17:25] Is
Jason [1:17:26] That, bro. It’s just like, it just like incentivizes the worst behavior ever. And then like, and you know, it’s like minus EV
Yan Liberman [1:17:37] To call it The funny thing is like you, KYC solves this, right? Like if have social trading on Robinhood, you couldn’t have this dude sitting on
Jason [1:17:45] Three other accounts trading
Yan Liberman [1:17:48] These coins. He’s
José Macedo [1:17:49] On video. I’m pretty sure he would do this under a KYC
Jason [1:17:52] Account. This dude’s
José Macedo [1:17:53] On video
Yan Liberman [1:17:53] In his house
José Macedo [1:17:54] Bragging about…
Yan Liberman [1:17:55] If you’re limited to one account… No, more so that social
José Macedo [1:17:59] Trading isn’t
Yan Liberman [1:18:00] Like a mega PVP.
Jason [1:18:04] You
José Macedo [1:18:05] Probably just buy KYC and do it that way with like yeah
Yan Liberman [1:18:09] No with like
Jason [1:18:10] Not not on a U.S.
Yan Liberman [1:18:11] Yeah no you know you can use a social security number all the stuff like it’s
José Macedo [1:18:14] Okay
Jason [1:18:15] Yeah signing up for U.S. things via kyc is like
José Macedo [1:18:17] I don’t think this dude’s american I’m gonna go out
Jason [1:18:19] On a limb I don’t
Yan Liberman [1:18:20] Know but I’m saying like a kyc platform that that has strong kyc parameters actually solves this and is probably what’s needed to have organic social trading
Jason [1:18:32] It’s just
José Macedo [1:18:33] It’s just these subcultures that emerge in crypto every once in a while, right? Where people, like there was the NFT art expert era
Yan Liberman [1:18:40] Where
Jason [1:18:41] People
José Macedo [1:18:41] Were analyzing like the squiggles. Yeah, the squiggles and the art.
Yan Liberman [1:18:48] It’s like that I think you should leave episode. Yeah, the more complicated the design, the more the shirt’s worth.
José Macedo [1:18:55] I
Ceteris [1:18:55] Want that one so bad.
Yan Liberman [1:18:57] So
José Macedo [1:18:57] Bad. Oh,
Jason [1:19:01] Man.
Ceteris [1:19:02] Definitely check out this report by Jason on the portal. By the way, it’s free. So just go look at it, read it.
Jason [1:19:07] It’s long, grab a
Ceteris [1:19:08] Beer. It’s long, but it’s a nice read all throughout.
José Macedo [1:19:11] This
Yan Liberman [1:19:11] The pod. I think
José Macedo [1:19:11] It’s a
Yan Liberman [1:19:12] Great…
Kevin Kelly [1:19:12] Really good.
Yan Liberman [1:19:14] Yeah, all Andrej, obviously. I spoke for like 2 % of it, which is perfect. Yeah, he does a great job just breaking down the space, they’re positioning in it, why they have a right to win, and kind of the markets they’re going to go into. Genuinely, if you ask me for like three tokens that I thought would, with the highest certainty, be higher a year from now, graphs would be very much on that list.
Kevin Kelly [1:19:41] Who would you
José Macedo [1:19:41] The other two be?
Yan Liberman [1:19:43] Hmm.
Yan Liberman [1:19:50] Hypercall. I think I had this Val.
Kevin Kelly [1:19:53] And Connecticut.
Yan Liberman [1:19:57] Probably Lighter.
Jason [1:20:00] Lighter’s an interesting one. I think a lot of people have written it off on a combination of the unlocks and the Robin Hood thing or whatever. Is that kind of your thinking?
Yan Liberman [1:20:11] I think options come into play and and they can do event like a year from now, right? Not three months
Jason [1:20:17] From now.
Yan Liberman [1:20:18] A year from now.
Jason [1:20:19] They’re starting with the binary.
Yan Liberman [1:20:20] Revisit October 2027.
Jason [1:20:23] I guess they’ll announce some stuff on options probably on their investor call or whatever today.
Yan Liberman [1:20:29] Yeah, I think it starts in like the binary way where it’s
Jason [1:20:32] Not real.
Yan Liberman [1:20:33] Like to hit four
Jason [1:20:34] Ones or whatever.
Yan Liberman [1:20:35] Yeah, exactly. And then eventually they launch the real thing.
Jason [1:20:39] The first step. Yep. I like that. If I lose money, I’ll just send you an
Yan Liberman [1:20:45] Invoice. I’ll send you back some Kinetiq.
Yan Liberman [1:20:51] I could see Venice as well, too, actually, pending some acquisition. Just think these businesses are…
José Macedo [1:20:58] Which one, sorry?
Yan Liberman [1:20:59] Venice would be the other.
José Macedo [1:21:01] I’m just
Yan Liberman [1:21:01] Thinking about business lines, products that are going to continue to do well and obviously will be beta to crypto to some degree. So but I think like in a year from now, unless like quantum gets figured out and everything gets just craters, I think those will all do well. And so this kind of, this goes back to Ceteris’s post about there being a lot of interesting opportunities in crypto because the market’s kind of been beaten down. But there’s actual compelling products being built under the surface.
Ceteris [1:21:37] Yeah, good momentum.
José Macedo [1:21:38] Good pod, guys.
Jason [1:21:39] Yeah, this was fun.
Kevin Kelly [1:21:41] Yeah. Great stuff. Quick shout-outs. Yeah, Reed, Jason’s latest speculation report was fantastic. I like the takeaway of anti-social trading, but at the end of the day, if people are going to do it, own the house. It’s the best strategy. So that one was really good. We just mentioned Yan’s latest interview on the Delphi podcast with Andrej from Grass. Really, really good one. And I feel like there’s a lot of questions that are still outstanding around grass and like what they’re doing, how they’re positioned, the rise of personal agents and actually how that kind of plays into this. So that’s a really good episode to check out. And then last but not least, we launched our new show Convergence with Luca Martin that just started. First two episodes are already out. A really good one on quantum with Nick Carter like we mentioned and his latest one with Arthur Hayes which has been a bit of a we’ll call it a controversial figure especially as of late within crypto but I think anytime he speaks you always find something interesting in his take so those are really good ups so definitely check those out
Jason [1:22:44] Hell yeah
Kevin Kelly [1:22:46] Alright guys gents till next time
Ceteris [1:22:49] Thanks everyone